Bioenergy and Food Security Modeling Income Effects in a Partial Equilibrium Model

Bioenergy has been politically promoted as a means to mitigate air pollution, climate change, and scarcity of fossil energy sources. This study addresses the question whether increased agricultural incomes from bioenergy production will improve food security despite increasing food prices. We use a small partial equilibrium to analyze bioenergy policies. Through an iterative procedure, income changes are used to shift food demand curves until equilibrium. Our results show that despite global reductions in food production, undernourishment may decrease in certain locations, where bioenergy production occurs.Food security, Bioenergy policy, Income changes, Partial equilibrium model, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Spatially explicit farming system modelling for an efficient agri-environmental policy design

A mathematical programming model is developed and associated to a spatial pattern index (Ripley L-function) to analyse the optimal reserve design and implementation for the Little Bustard conservation in Plaine de Niort. The model structure corresponds to three spatial levels, fields, farm and landscape. Simple in terms of area representation it is detailed in term of farm behaviour and spatially explicit. The model is applied in a normative and in a positive way. The major findings of the normative approach relate to the trade-offs between the reserve pattern and its cost. It was found that the environmentally optimal reserve, which is randomly dispersed across the zone, is the most costly one. Within the positive approach, it is illustrated that the various reserve patterns generated within the normative approach can be obtained through relatively simple uniform contract structures. The most effective contract structure is a degressive set of two payments enabling all the farms to enrol at least a small share of their land.Biodiversity, spatial optimization, mathematical programming, agri-environmental policies, Tetrax tetrax, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Spatially explicit farming system modelling for an efficient agri-environmental policy design

A mathematical programming model is developed and associated to a spatial pattern index (Ripley L function) to analyse the optimal reserve design and implementation for the Little Bustard conservation in Plaine de Niort. The model structure corresponds to three spatial levels, fields, farm and landscape. Simple in terms of area representation, it is detailed in terms of farm behaviour and spatially explicit. The model is applied in a normative and in a positive way. The major findings of the normative approach relate to the trade-offs between the reserve pattern and its cost. It was found that the environmentally optimal reserve, which is randomly dispersed across the zone, is the most costly one. Within the positive approach, it is illustrated that the various reserve patterns generated within the normative approach can be obtained through relatively simple uniform contract structures. The most effective contract structure is a degressive set of two payments enabling the farms to enroll at least a small share of their land.Biodiversity, spatial optimization, mathematical programming, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,

Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty

Concerns about future food security in the face of volatile and potentially lower yields due to climate change have been at the heart of recent discussions on adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. While there are a variety of studies trying to quantify the impact of climate change on yields, some of that literature also acknowledges the fact that these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty. The question arises how such uncertainty will affect decision-making if ensuring food security is an explicit objective. Also, it will be important to establish, which options for adaptation are most promising in the face of volatile yields. The analysis is carried out using a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) model, which is a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bio-energy and forestry sectors with the aim to give policy advice on global issues concerning land use competition between the major land-based production sectors. The source of stochasticity is the interannual crop yield variability, making it more risky to rely on average yields and thus requiring stochastic optimization techniques. The results indicate that food security requires overproduction to meet minimum food supply constraints also in scenarios of negative yield shocks, where the additional land needed is sourced from forests and other natural land. Trade liberalization and enhanced irrigation both appear to be promising food supply stabilization, and hence land saving, mechanisms in the face of missing storage.food security, food price volatility, optimization under uncertainty, adaptation, land use change, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty,

Environmental Good Production in the Optimum Activities Portfolio of a Risk Averse Farmer

An analytical framework is proposed for analysis of environmental good production by farmers in the case of price uncertainty. Environmental good production contracted by means of agri-environmental agreements is treated as a risk less option in the farmer's production activities portfolio. Efficient frontiers were generated using mathematical programming farm level models of suckler cow farms in Monts du Cantal, in France. It was demonstrated that for a DARA risk averse farmer: 1) the agreement payment level is not without impact on the farming intensity on parcels not subscribed under the corresponding argi-environmental programme, 2) a lump sum payment matters under uncertainty, 3) the overall impact of the lump sum payment on environmental good production depends on the type of jointness in production of agricultural and environmental goods, and on the level of uncertainty.uncertainty, portfolio optimisation, biodiversity, agricultural policy, mathematical programming, Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q12, Q18, Q28,

Agriculture, Population, Land and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – The Role of Irrigation

Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water.Irrigation, Food supply, Integrated assessment, Water use intensity, Agricultural adaptation, Land scarcity, Partial equilibrium model, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Environmental good production in the optimum activities portfolio of a risk averse-farmer

An analytical framework is proposed for analysis of environmental good production by farmers in the case of price uncertainty. Environmental good production contracted by means of agri-environmental agreements is treated as a riskless option in the farmer’s production activities portfolio. It is shown that agri-environmental agreements aiming at biodiversity competing with beef production are likely to increase management intensity on the non-enrolled land, and that the effect of the payments for these agreements on the number of hectares enrolled is ambiguous. It is also demonstrated that an increase in the output price variability and/or a decrease in the level of decoupled subsidies will induce an increase (decrease) in the area enrolled in agreements aiming at biodiversity competing with (complementary to) beef production. The obtained results are illustrated by means of efficient frontiers generated using mathematical programming farm level models of suckler cow farms in Monts du Cantal, in France.uncertainty, portfolio optimisation, biodiversity, agricultural policy, mathematical programming

An Integrated Economic Model of Global Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Agriculture

We present the results of integrating the fisheries sector into an existing computable partial-equilibrium global model of agriculture, livestock, bioenergy, forestry, and land use. The model is constructed by reconciling publicly available global datasets from the FAO as well as the literature. The model of the fish sector represents capture and aquaculture at the country level. Capture is further differentiated at the level of FAO Major Fishing Areas, while aquaculture differentiates between subsistence systems and systems fed commercially formulated aquaculture feeds. Seafood is split into 10 commodity groups. International trade is bilateral and the model differentiates between food, feed, and other uses of fish. Using projected changes in population and income, future demand for seafood is estimated to exceed 250 million tons in 2050. Future supply from capture fisheries is expected to be determined by fishery policies and to remain limited, and the remainder of the demand shall be satisfied from aquaculture. The aquaculture production systems of the 10 commodity groups are characterized using varying feed ratios and varying feed composition of fish meal, fish oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, maize, wheat, and groundnut meal. We estimate that the aquaculture sector will require an additional 120 million tons of terrestrial feed products in 2050. Due to the relatively high efficiency of the aquaculture sector, this translates into relatively minor land-use effects, namely an additional 12 million hectares of cropland in 2050

Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness

The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use and which can potentially have large impacts on the future development of the global forest sector. In this study, we investigate the impacts of material substitution between C, NC and R biomass on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness from 2020 to 2100. The analysis is based on a global spatially-explicit forest sector model (GLOBIOM-forest). Our results indicate that traditional forest industry regions can maintain their competitiveness in a baseline scenario where C and NC biomass remain imperfect substitutes, and the development of the circular economy increases the availability of R biomass. Limited availability of R biomass would increase the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline. On the other hand, a perfect substitution between C and NC biomass would decrease the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline, and increase the competitiveness of emerging forest industry regions such as South America, Asia and Africa. We also show that the increased availability of R biomass tends to decrease demand for pulpwood and might lead to an oversupply of pulpwood especially in traditional forest industry regions. This opens new perspectives for pulpwood use and/or forest management in these regions

A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,